2014 ROOKIES TO DRAFT AND WAIVER WATCH PART I

http://www.thefantasyreport.net/2014/06/10/2014-rookies-to-draft-and-waiver-watch-part-i-rbs/

Somewhere between the madness of “rookie fever” that annually afflicts dynasty league owners (see below) and the total rookie ignorance of the casual fantasy footballer who prints a cheat-sheet a few hours before a draft, lies the sweet spot where owners reasonably value rookies relative to their draft-day costs. This article attempts to tease out that sweet spot for some promising rookies. It is the first of a three part series about 2014 rookies worth either drafting or monitoring (i.e. ‘waiver watching’) throughout the season. The article presumes you are drafting for one-year, 12 team leagues, regarding the ADP and advice listed.

“He has been a reliable starter for me for 5 seasons, but he did just turn 30. Yup, better trade him for a 2nd round rookie pick.” – Every other dynasty owner in the off-season.

Rookie RBs to Draft:

Player: Bishop Sankey

Team: Tennessee Titans

Current ADP, late 3rd Round

This one is straight-forward – Sankey’s value comes from inheriting a starter role in a situation with little competition in which he could realistically be in the 300 touch range as a rookie. The Titans were a semi modest run-heavy team last year, finishing 11th in team rushes (446 rushes). The thoroughly mediocre Shonn Greene will take some touches, but a minority of them, and Dexter McCluster is more of a return specialist that likely won’t get many carries. Simply put, Sankey should be the man from day 1 for the Titans. He has reasonable speed (4.49 40-yd dash), good vision, and played in a pro-style offense at Washington. He has young legs and little injury history in spite of a solid workload in college. All in all, he is worthy of a late 3rd/early 4th round pick due to the fact that he rates to be a real ‘bell-cow’ RB, an increasingly rare NFL commodity. Even if he gets ‘only’ 250 carries, a 1000+ yard season is likely.

Mitigating factors:

He plays behind a mediocre line that run blocks decently, but has problems with pass blocking. Lack of pass protection and a shaky passing game overall could translate to Sankey facing an extra man or two in the box a little more than you’d like to see a rookie face. Also, Frank Gore, Ryan Matthews, Ben Tate, and Chris Johnson are all being drafted after Sankey. Depending on how you value each of these individual players, you might see any of the four as a better fantasy option than Sankey.

Player: Tre Mason

Team: St. Louis Rams

Current ADP, late 11th Round

Mason is similar in speed and physical size as Rams RB1 Zac Stacy. Both run around a 4.5 40 time (Mason a 4.5, Stacy a 4.55), both are 5’8’’, and both have compact builds, though the “Staced God” is a little stronger. Mason is probably a more explosive RB, being quick off the snap with an above average ability to jump-cut and change direction. Mason handled a heavy workload in college as a starting RB and playing on special teams. Mason also is solid in pass protection, a common issue that keeps some rookie RBs from staying on the field.

The value of Mason really comes down to the performance of Zac Stacy. Stacy only averaged 3.9 YPC in 2013, though this can be partially forgiven due to the tough schedule he faced. Stacy appeared to wear a bit down the stretch, averaging only 3.2 YPC in his last five games, and getting stuffed for 15 yards on 15 carries against the Seahawks to end the season. At the least, Stacy is a RB who needs volume to produce. Stacy did have some minor repeated injury issues in college and there are some questions as to his durability over the course of a full season to achieve the volume he will need to produce well in fantasy.

If Stacy starts the season strong and has a stranglehold on the starter job, Mason can then be cut. However, even if Stacy gets the bulk of carries to start the year (which is to be expected) but is very inefficient as a runner who racks up a high volume of carries for pedestrian results, Mason could wind up getting significant carries down the stretch, if not contend for the starter job. Jeff Fisher has always heavily relied on the run, and with many developing young WRs, this will likely hold true for 2014. This creates the potential for 10-15 touches for Mason as the season progresses, even if Stacy remains the team’s starter. And of course, if Stacy fails and falls back into the obscurity he so quickly emerged from last season (which is possible), Mason has huge potential relative to his cost. Basically, Mason is a good ‘lotto ticket’ for fantasy owners who aren’t sold on Zac Stacy.

Mitigating factors:

Mason has to face the same difficult schedule as Stacy (obviously), which gives some cause for concern for either back. Both backs will need volume to be worth starting on a regular basis, and for Mason to really shine, he will need to overtake Stacy as a starter. He had some fumbling issues in college (eight in the last two years), and if these re-emerge early in the season, he can probably kiss his chance at significant 2014 carries goodbye.

Honorable Mention:

Player: Jeremy Hill

Team: Cincinnati Bengals

Current ADP, 9th Round

Hill is a big power back who should eventually be the primary running game compliment to Gio. He lacks speed and has character concerns, but he does have the size and characteristics to replace BJGE and take over that role in the offense. This hasn’t happened yet, but his 9th round ADP is based on a consensus viewpoint that the Bengals will likely cut The Law Firm to save 2.3 million dollars before the season starts. If BJGE gets cut as expected, Hill could be a nice value, especially for standard leagues.

Rookie RBs to Waiver Watch:

Player: Andre Williams

Team: New York Giants

Current ADP, Undrafted

This Doak Walker award winner ran for 2,177 yards(!) on 355 attempts(!!) in his senior campaign. He has a thick frame at 5’11’’ and 230 pounds, and was durable in college. His 4.56 40-yd dash isn’t overly impressive, but it is still a nice number relative to his size. He had solid combine numbers and is a good mix of a power back that still maintains reasonable speed. He also has a good nose for end-zone, which could put him in a Brandon Jacobs or Andre Brown type role even if he works his way up to being the consistent #2 rusher in the Giant’s system. The major reason to watch him is the RB situation for the Giants. Rashad Jennings will start the year as the lead rusher, but has never shown the durability to be a true RB1 for a full season. Jennings, 29, also doesn’t have a skill-set that is particularly better than Williams. David Wilson is still in the mix, but he is yet to be cleared to even take contact after his serious neck injury and subsequent surgery. Wilson has more talent than Jennings or Williams, but might not even play and still has to show that he had rid himself of his fumbling issues (an absolute no-no for Coughlin) and other on-the-field problems before he gets significant work.

If Wilson can’t fully comeback, I’d snag Williams early, if not take a late-round flier on him. Does anyone really think Jennings will handle 250-300 touches without injury or incident? By mid-season, Williams could easily be in a prime position to rack up carries, right around the time your starting RBs are running into injuries and byes of their own to worry about.

Mitigating factors:

He only had 10 catches while playing for Boston College, so he loses some potential value for PPR formats. He had a great line in college that helped him dominate softer ACC opponents, so his stats are a little inflated. He is also is coming off a year with a very heavy workload, which is less than ideal even for young RBs. Above all, if Wilson can come back and Jennings remains healthy (two *big* IFs), there simply won’t be enough touches for Williams to be worth stashing on your roster.

Player: James White

Team: New England Patriots

Current ADP, Undrafted

The newest Patriots RB is a bit on the small side at 5’9’’ and 204 lbs. While this reduces his ability to power through tackles, it does give him a lower center of gravity, an important positive that is often overlooked when fantasy owners rate RBs . Running a 4.57 40-yd dash, he is slow for his size, and is a balanced RB with a limited ceiling. However, he pass-blocks well, has solid fundamentals, and has exceptional ball control, fumbling only twice in 754 career collegiate carries. This makes him the type of reliable middling player that Belichick has no trouble plugging into the line-up if the players above him falter.

The real reason to watch him is the New England RB situation, and how cheaply you can come by their RBs when you consider they are quietly a solid rushing offense in the NFL. They have been a top 10 rushing team the last two seasons, finishing 7th in 2012 and 9th in 2013. When you include the way they involve players like Vereen in the passing game, you quickly realize this is one of the few NFL teams that can viably support two starting fantasy RBs. Those RBs currently are Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen, both of whom are skilled but also have question marks.

For Ridley, the question is whether he has finally solved his fumbling issues and will be able to stay out of Belichick’s doghouse. Although a touch slow himself, Ridley is the best pure RB on the team, and people forget this is the same guy who had 1300 total yards and 12 TDs just two years ago. But Belichick is the kind of coach who doesn’t care about any of that if Ridley can’t avoid making mistakes.

Vereen has his role on lockdown as a guy to get 12-15 touches a game being used in both elements of the offense, assuming he stays healthy. This isn’t a given though. Branden Bolden is also ahead of White, but while he has been good in spurts, he is more of a power rusher. His deficiencies in pass-protection and the one-dimensional nature of his game make me think he is unlikely to replace Ridley as the primary back if Ridley falters. If Ridley fails, I think it creates a great opportunity for White.

Many owners are afraid of the NE running situation, because of Belichick’s fickleness. However, this has devalued their RBs relative to the team’s rushing productivity, giving you the opportunity for value (while a late 2nd/early 3rd round Ridley being mediocre was devastating last year, a 6th round Ridley is much less costly and hence less risky given his ceiling, for example). With White, it costs you very little if you snag him off the wire if changes in the situation warrants, namely if Ridley or Vereen would fail on field or have injury problems. If you wind up being wrong and White doesn’t get the touches you’d hope for or doesn’t do much with them, he could then be an easy cut.

Mitigating factors:

White is slow for his size and is buried at 4th on the NE depth chart. He must have at least Ridley and possibly Bolden fail for him to have enough touches to be fantasy relevant.

Takeaway:

The purpose of this series is to give you a tool to better assess some important rookies for your upcoming drafts. There are several other rookies RBs worthy of consideration not mentioned here, and I highly suggest you do your homework on the numerous fantasy websites and forums available to get up to speed on these players. And of course, if you are interested in some more information here, feel free to post any questions or thoughts in the comments on anyone you feel is important that I might have missed, for any format you might be drafting for.

Get to know your rookies, but keep their value in context. Like a kid with a shiny new toy, it can be easy for fantasy veterans to go crazy and over-value rookies based on potential, and hopefully I haven’t done that here. Conversely, if you are more of a casual fantasy owner, it can also be easy to not even know who these guys are if you aren’t careful. You don’t want to be grasping at straws come draft day when the mid-rounds roll around and quite a bit of the draft value comes from lesser known rookies/young players and guys who aren’t yet established veterans. Hopefully this can help be a step in the direction of avoiding that kind of draft-day dilemma.

#shop